Greater Depression

Just in from housingpanic.

A SPECIAL MESSAGE TO ANYONE THINKING OF CATCHING A FALLING KNIFE TODAY - DON'T DO IT. WE'RE JUST STARTING. HOMEDEBTORSHIP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT IS THE WORST FINANCIAL MISTAKE YOU COULD EVER MAKE. AND DO NOT LISTEN TO ANYONE WHO WOULD EARN A COMMISSION IF THEY COULD CON YOU INTO TAKING OUT A MORTGAGE OR 'BUYING' A DEPRECIATING HOUSE.

Yale’s Shiller: U.S. Housing Slump May Exceed Great Depression

Yale University economist Robert Shiller, pioneer of Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home-price index, said there’s a good chance housing prices will fall further than the 30% drop in the historic depression of the 1930s. Home prices nationwide already have dropped 15% since their peak in 2006, he said.

“I think there is a scenario that they could be down substantially more,” Mr. Shiller said during a speech at the New Haven Lawn Club.

Mr. Shiller, who admitted he has a reputation for being bearish, said real estate cycles typically take years to correct. Home prices rose about 85% from 1997 to 2006 adjusted for inflation, the biggest national housing boom in U.S. history, Mr. Shiller said. “Basically we’re in uncharted territory,” he said. “It seems we have developed a speculative culture about housing that never existed on a national basis before.” Many people became convinced that housing prices would increase 10% annually, a notion Mr. Shiller called crazy.